Blockchain and Smart contracts have evolved out of the technology underlying and popularized by bitcoin. So how widespread are these concepts? Have they reached the public awareness or are these merely niche technologies? Google Trends provides one perspective based on search queries which shows much greater search interest and therefore awareness of “Bitcoin” than “Blockchain” or “Smart Contracts”. It may also reflect the maturity and scale of bitcoin commercial offerings with multiple cryptocurrency exchanges in operation globally. In contrast, Blockchains and Smart Contracts appear to be at an earlier stage of development and commercialization as well as being targeted towards markets that are less mass market and more niche industrial applications (e.g. tracking supply chain provenance for pharmaceuticals).
The search terms “Bitcoin”, Blockchain” and “Smart Contract” all have a similar global spread, with peak search volumes coming, perhaps surprisingly, from Africa. Peak search volumes were associated with bitcoin price queries as might be expected. The results for “Smart Contract” also indicated related queries associated with mobile phones. This may reflect some different interpretations of the phrase (e.g. advertising for mobile phone subscription contracts) or perhaps an interest in access to bitcoins and blockchain smart contracts through wallets on mobile devices.
The Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging technologies provides a perspective on perceived technology maturity. Newly emerging technologies are posited to go through stages from being an “innovation trigger” to the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” then through the “Trough of Disillusionment”, and up the “Slope of Enlightenment” to finally reach a “Plateau of Productivity”. The Gartner Hype Cycle 2016 identified “Blockchain as nearing the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”. The Gartner Hype Cycle 2017 identified “Blockchain” as about to cross between the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and the “Trough of Disillusionment”. The Gartner Hype Cycle 2018 maintained “Blockchain” as about to cross between the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and the “Trough of Disillusionment”. It also split out “Blockchain for Data Security” as being in the “Innovation Trigger” stage. The Gartner Hype Cycle 2019 does not list Bitcoin, Blockchain or Smart Contracts, but it does call out “Decentralized Autonomous Organizations” (DAOs) as being in the “Innovation Trigger” stage. DAOs may be considered as LegalTech – prototype legal entities associated with blockchain smart contracts. Gartner’s 2019 Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies provides a more detailed perspective. While the more generic term “blockchain” is sliding into the trough, smart contracts, decentralized identities, and consensus mechanisms are at the peak; zero-knowledge proofs, privacy-enhanced multiparty computing, and smart contract oracles are on the rise.
Bitcoin has moved into the mass market vocabulary and seems to be providing some operational utility as a financial asset with many searches for bitcoin prices. Blockchain applications beyond cryptocurrency are often not mass-market applications. Blockchain Loyalty Programs would target mass-market consumer awareness but even these have limitations of scale compared to cryptocurrencies. Industrial applications of blockchains, in supply chains, for example, would not reach consumer awareness to trigger searches.